Business climate indicators in the Polish economy are deteriorating

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The indicator of the general economic climate in manufacturing (not seasonally adjusted – NSA) amounted to -18.8 in September 2022 against -15.2 in August – the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported presenting the signaling data. The indicator is at its lowest levels in almost two years (large lockdown due to the fall 2020 pandemic).

“In September 2022, the indicator of the general economic climate in most of the presented areas of the economy is at a level similar or lower than that presented in August. In most of the analyzed areas, no changes or deterioration are signaled for diagnostic components, while in the case of prognostic components a deterioration is signaled” – we read in the release.

Only units from the financial and insurance activities as well as information and communication sections assess the economic situation favorably, while the most pessimistic entities in the sections of construction, industrial processing as well as accommodation and gastronomy. By saying “favorable”, the Central Statistical Office understands a situation where the percentage of entrepreneurs expecting an improvement in the economic situation in the next three months or observing such an improvement outweighs the percentage of entrepreneurs expecting a deterioration.

See also: The scenario of a recession in Poland is less likely as production continues to rise

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In construction, the general business climate index (NSA) in September is at the level of -19.1, which is lower than that recorded a month ago (-15.3). In wholesale trade, the general economic climate index (NSA) in September is -8.3, which is similar to that recorded in August (-7). In retail trade in September the indicator amounts to -9.5, slightly worse than a month ago (-8.1).

In transport and storage, the general economic climate index (NSA) in September is at the level of -7.2, i.e. close to the August (-6.3) level. In the accommodation and catering industry, the indicator is -18.6 compared to whether it has deteriorated significantly compared to the previous month (-4.9). Entities operating in the field of accommodation formulate more pessimistic assessments of the economic situation (-23.7) than catering units (-12.3).

In the information and communication industry, the general economic climate index (NSA) in September is at the level of +10.6, i.e. close to the one signaled in August (+11.8). In the finance and insurance sector, the index improved to +11.1 from +9.2.

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The companies surveyed by the Central Statistical Office, when asked about the impact of the war in Ukraine, indicated as negative factors primarily the increase in costs, disturbed supply chains, a decline in demand and revenues, and the termination of contracts with eastern partners.

The GUS survey shows that high investment implementation costs are the reason for limiting the scale of investments for 61.1 percent companies from the industrial processing sector, 61.6 percent construction companies, 49.3 percent wholesale trade companies, 68.5 percent retail trade, 57.1 percent transport and warehouse management and 69.5 percent. for accommodation and catering companies.

In turn, inflation inhibits investments in the case of 59.3 percent. companies from the industrial processing sector, 75 percent construction companies, 61.7 percent wholesale trade, 71.7 percent retail, 70.5 percent. transport and storage and 66 percent. accommodation and gastronomy.

The latest data for August from the real zone of the Polish economy on industrial production and retail sales turned out to be quite good. In the case of industry, a decent reading suggests that a technical recession in Q3 was avoided. Retail sales, in turn, are driven by refugee purchases and higher inflation.

See also: The solidarity shield will not solve the problem of rising energy. Inflation and interest rates will be high

The article is in Polish

Tags: Business climate indicators Polish economy deteriorating

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