The specter of the black scenario for the energy sector is receding?

The specter of the black scenario for the energy sector is receding?
The specter of the black scenario for the energy sector is receding?
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The specter of the worst-case scenario for the energy sector has receded a bit in connection with the upcoming winter. All because of the fall in the price of natural gas, the price of which is the lowest in two months. “One of the main reasons why there will be no shortage of gas in winter is the rapid rebuilding of stocks – according to Goldman Sachs analysts at the end of October, European gas storage facilities are to be 90 percent full.” – we read in “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna”.

READ ALSO: Buda: Freezing energy prices for households is a revolutionary solution. I have not heard of anyone going that far

Gas on the ICE exchange almost halved in four weeks. The price of blue fuel has been historically high at 350 Euro / MWh. Now, for contracts with October delivery it is 180 EUR / MWh.

There are more and more analyzes indicating that the price of the commodity may continue to decline. According to the investment bank Goldman Sachs, at the end of March next year, when the heating season in Europe ends, the gas will cost less than EUR 100 / MWh

– writes Tomasz Jóźwik in “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna”.

Experts and investors are betting on a scenario in which the scale of the energy crisis in Europe has been overestimated to some extent, or at least the worst scenarios will not come true. Despite the announcement of the suspension of supplies via the Nord Stream gas pipeline by Russian Gazprom at the beginning of September

– he adds.

Grzegorz Ogonek, economist of Santander Bank Polska, also assesses the situation for “DGP”.

We are still at the stage of discovering the negative consequences of the supply shock related to the sharp increase in energy commodity prices. This impulse spread widely throughout the economy and reached many corners of the market

– emphasizes the expert.

One of the unknowns concerns, for example, consumer behavior. We know that due to various types of transfers in times of a pandemic, their savings rate has definitely increased. But it is difficult to determine exactly how these savings are distributed, and what proportion of households will reduce consumption and which proportion will choose to pay the higher prices.

– he adds.

Why will there be no shortage of gas in winter?

Due to a further decline in the economic growth forecast, Grzegorz Ogonek believes that it is difficult to imagine the coming quarters without a recession in Europe.

How much we have to pay for energy will determine the scale of the economic consequences. According to the calculations of BlackRock experts, the largest company in the world specializing in asset management, this year the European Union will spend 11.7 percent on gas, oil and coal. GDP, almost five times more than two years ago

– we read in “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna”.

The calculations of the economist Andreas Steno show that in Poland and Germany energy expenditure will increase to approx. 10 percent. GDP. For comparison, in 2020 it was only 2 percent. GDP.

Falling energy commodity prices may lower these bills. Crude oil prices have dropped since June and are at $ 90. a barrel of Brent grade. Coal prices have been in the $ 300-350 range for several months. per ton

– says Tomasz Jóźwik in “DGP”.

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The author points out that “in this puzzle, natural gas is of key importance from the point of view of Europe”. In 2021, 40 percent. of the raw material consumed by EU countries came from Russia.

One of the main reasons why gas will not run out in winter is the rapid rebuilding of stocks – according to Goldman Sachs analysts, European gas storage facilities are to be 90 percent full at the end of October. Inventories are growing faster than usual as industrial demand is declining under the influence of high prices

– we read.

The situation in European energy markets has started to improve in the last three weeks as political action takes shape

– emphasized Timera Energy analysts, quoted by the Bloomberg agency.

What is the reason for the improvement in the situation on the energy markets?

As Tomasz Jóźwik explains, “it is not just about the proposals for intervention on the energy market presented last week by the European Commission, assuming the reduction of energy consumption, or the establishment of a fund worth EUR 140 billion, derived from excess profits of energy companies, which will support consumers and companies exposed to the negative effects of high energy prices ”.

On the final straight is the legislative process that will enable France to supply 100 GWh per day of natural gas to Germany from 10 October. Germany, which satisfied a quarter of gas demand through the Nord Stream gas pipeline, is in the group of countries most exposed to gas shortages

– writes the author in “DGP”.

The network of dependencies in the European energy sector is quite complicated and if any of the elements does not work in a crisis, we may find ourselves in a situation where some European industry will not have gas

– emphasizes Grzegorz Ogonek, economist of Santander Bank Polska.

READ ALSO:

– Neighbors from across the Odra River will be enough blue fuel for winter? German gas storage facilities are over 90 percent full.

-GRAŻYNA RASZKOWSKA: The time of the increases is over. Experts agree, fortunately high unemployment is not a threat to us

-Deputy Prime Minister Kowalczyk: Energy prices give rise to great concern. This is another source that may cause food prices to rise

mm / “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna”


The article is in Polish

Tags: specter black scenario energy sector receding

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