On Monday morning, the Polish zloty stabilizes against its main competitors on the Forex market. Today’s session is characterized by the following changes in currency pairs: GBP/PLN (+0.05%), CHF/PLN (-0.05%), USD/PLN (+0.07%) and EUR/PLN (+0, 04%). Check the exchange rates on Monday, September 18, 2023.
- The USD/PLN exchange rate is struggling to maintain the barrier of PLN 4.35
- EUR/PLN is testing the level of PLN 4.64
- The franc exchange rate is PLN 4.85
- The pound sterling is oscillating at the support of PLN 5.3960
|Currency pair||Course||Name||update date|
|EUR/PLN||4.6433||euro||September 18, 2023, 9:40 am|
|USD/PLN||4.3541||dollar||September 18, 2023, 9:40 am|
|GBP/PLN||5.3989||pound||September 18, 2023, 9:40 am|
|CHF/PLN||4.8505||franc||September 18, 2023, 9:40 am|
The dollar exchange rate stops at PLN 4.35
The dollar exchange rate ended last week with an increase of almost 5 cents, rebounding from the support area of PLN 4.30 to the resistance area of PLN 4.35, with which we start today’s session.
Mixed data from the USA, however, prevent the continuation of the rally, but are still not a sufficient pretext for the EUR/USD rate to rebound above 1.06 and, consequently, for the strengthening of the zloty.
This week, the market is awaiting the FOMC’s decision on further interest rates, scheduled for Wednesday, September 20. Contrary to last week’s position of the ECB, the Fed will probably leave the range of federal funds rates at 5.25-5.5%.
This may be due to the fact that from the Federal Reserve’s perspective, both inflation and the labor market are heading in the right direction, and therefore further monetary tightening is not necessary for now. If this scenario is confirmed, the market should increasingly expect the first date of a rate cut in the US.
On the USD/PLN chart we can see that for the last 2 sessions the prices have been flat, right at the resistance of PLN 4.3510, which has been stopping buyers since last Thursday. Thus, breaking this barrier would open the way to PLN 4.38, but from the current perspective, a downward correction seems more likely, the first target of which should be the level of PLN 4.32.
The EUR/PLN exchange rate is trying to maintain PLN 4.64
EUR/PLN quotations ended last week with a slight strengthening, and although on Tuesday, September 12, they tested 5-month highs at PLN 4.70, improved sentiment and expectations of the end of the interest rate increase cycle hit the common currency quotations.
Let us recall that on Thursday, September 14, the European Central Bank, contrary to market expectations, decided to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points. It is worth noting that this was the tenth increase in a row, as a result of which the ECB’s main rate reached 4.50 percent, which is the highest level since August 2001.
It is worth noting that the Governing Council of the ECB assesses that “The ECB’s key interest rates are at levels that, if maintained for a sufficient period of time, will make a significant contribution to bringing inflation quickly back to the target level.”
It can therefore be estimated that last week’s increase was the last in the tightening cycle that has been ongoing since July 2022.
– The Governing Council’s future decisions will aim to ensure that the ECB’s key interest rates remain at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary – indicated in the announcement.
Therefore, further growth of the euro may result from the deepening weakness of the Polish zloty, and not from the strength of the common currency. Today, on the chart, we can observe the struggle between demand and supply, which is still inconclusive, even though the chart favors buyers who, after taking profits, may want to break the barrier of PLN 4.65.-
The Swiss franc quotations are around PLN 4.85
The Swiss franc, like other currencies, has recently strengthened against the Polish zloty. Nevertheless, the past week turned out to be moderately positive for the CHF/PLN pair, as it ended with an increase of just 2 groszy from PLN 4.83 to PLN 4.85, with which we start today’s session.
Although further increases are still in play, and the level of PLN 4.84 is an important support. On the chart we see increasing selling pressure, which may lead us to a re-test of support at PLN 4.82 in the following days.
The pound is struggling with the support of PLN 5.39
The GBP/PLN exchange rate interrupted the rally last week and although the market expects further interest rate increases on Thursday, September 21, they may slowly end the current tightening cycle.
Currently, the pound prices are struggling for another day with the support level of PLN 5.39, the breaking of which may mean a continuation of the correction to the area of PLN 5.35.
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