In recent months, salaries have been growing at a double-digit rate, but they still lag behind inflation.
The last reading of the Central Statistical Office for October showed that although Poles earn an average of 13% more than a year ago, the whole increase is eaten up by higher prices. In the same period, inflation amounted to 17.9 percent. In real terms, the average salary fell by almost 5%.
First: wages continue to rise sharply
According to the government, however, the trend should reverse quite quickly. Already next year, the increase in salaries is expected to exceed 10% on average annually, while inflation should fall to 9.8%.
Another thing is that this is quite an optimistic assumption, because already, for example, the OECD in its recent forecasts indicated that the price growth rate next year will not be single-digit.
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But let’s get back to the government’s estimates. How much, then, will the statistical Pole earn in the coming years? Next year, the average salary is expected to be 6,000. PLN 935 gross per month.
The following years saw further increases. 7 thousand PLN 512 in 2024, 8 thousand PLN 31 in 2025 and as much as 8 thousand. PLN 509 in 2026 This is data for the entire economy.
On the other hand, in the enterprise sector, the average wage will be approx. PLN 400 higher on average. Respectively: 7 thousand. PLN 308 in 2024, 7 thousand. PLN 907 in 2025 and 8 thousand. PLN 980 in 2026
This means more or less that a statistical Pole in 2026 will earn over PLN 100,000. PLN gross per year, and in the case of work in the enterprise sector – even 108 thousand. zloty.
Although, in principle, an increase in salaries can be enjoyable (although it should be remembered that the arithmetic mean does not always faithfully reflect reality), when we look deeper, it may turn out that it also brings about other, less favorable changes.
Secondly, the tax threshold remains unchanged in real terms
In this context, it is worth looking at the increase in the tax threshold introduced by PiS from the beginning of 2022. After almost a decade of freezing the threshold, it was raised in the Polish Lad from 85,000. PLN 528 up to PLN 120,000 zloty.
An impressive increase of more than 40%. However, in four years, little will be left of this increase in real terms.
When PiS decided to move the threshold above which the 32% PIT rate applies, it amounted to he about 126 percent. average gross salary. Let us remind you that in 2021 it amounted to just over 5.6 thousand. PLN per month, i.e. approx. 68 thousand. PLN per year.
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In 2026, this increase will be practically “eaten” by an inflationary increase in salaries. And with a vengeance. Unless, of course, the threshold is raised again.
According to estimates by Business Insider Polska, the tax is 32 percent. you will have to pay on your earnings at less than 120 percent. average salary.
Third: inflation will eventually return to the NBP’s target
The government is very optimistic about inflation. According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2026 we will forget about the gallop of prices and the CPI will return to the NBP target. Recall that it is 2.5 percent. with an acceptable deviation of 1 percentage point. up and down.
And while the next two years will still be marked by inflation (9.8 percent in 2023 and 4.8 percent in 2024), the next two years will allow you to breathe a sigh of relief. In 2025, the price increase is to amount to 3.1 percent, and in 2026 – the aforementioned 2.5 percent. The key word in this context, however, is “forecast”.
The government has been overly optimistic on more than one occasion when it comes to estimates of future inflation. It is worth recalling that, according to the Ministry of Finance, the average annual inflation in 2022 was to amount to … 3.3 percent.
Exactly this value was included in the budget act for 2022 at the end of last year.
Fourth: 500 plus in real terms already below PLN 300
If inflation means less purchasing power of money. And not only the salary, but also all additional benefits.
Recently, in Business Insider Polska, we showed that inflation eats up the vast majority of benefits introduced by the government in recent years.
The flagship example that best illustrated the effect of inflation was 500 plus. This benefit, introduced in April 2016, in October 2022, it was already worth about PLN 360 in real terms.
If the government’s forecasts come true, the decline in the value of the benefit will continue. At the end of 2026, 500 plus it will be worth less than PLN 300, or more precisely PLN 296. In fact, even less, because in our estimates we omitted the inflation value for the last two months of 2022.
Fifth: do not count on a cheap loan or a significant decrease in the installment
The government’s forecast also includes interest rate estimates.
Let us recall that at the beginning of October 2021, the reference rate was 0.1 percent. and was record low. It also meant the era of cheap money, because loans were not only easily available, but also had the lowest interest rates in history.
However, a lot has changed since then. Throughout the following year, the Monetary Policy Council raised the reference rate, which today it is already at the level of 6.75 percent, which resulted in an increase in loan installments by about 100 percent.
For the time being, the rate hike cycle has been suspended and the Council has not raised interest rates in the last two months. But NBP president Adam Glapiński is already hinting at possible cuts at the end of next year.
However, if someone is counting on a return to pandemic interest rates, they may be severely disappointed. Economists have been talking about this for months, but now the government has admitted it too.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the reference rate will fall, but only slightly. In 2023, it is to amount to 6.9% on average annually. (which must mean further increases, because today it is 6.75 percent), but in the following years it should fall to 5.2 and 5 percent.
So you can forget about cheap loans. At most, there is a chance to return to the situation from spring 2022, when interest rates were just at 5 percent.